Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x954d…cd39 other 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,392 (+3%) realized +$1,948 · open +$444
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%61W / 89L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$54
14 days−$233
30 days−$5,045
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$516
world 11% +$2,262
politics 3% +$152
culture 1% +$4
sports 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.3% -26.1% 40% 24% -14.7%
≤30d 46 -35.5% -41.6% 30% 17% -50.5%
≤90d 126 -12.8% -21.1% 41% 29% -14.3%
all 150 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 31% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 31% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 26% -16.8%
15% -34.9% 21% -24.8%
20% -41.3% 17% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$670) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$467 vs −$303 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$605
Realized+$1,948
Unrealized+$444
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses61 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)150 / 156
History coverage104d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 20¢ 98¢ $109 $527 +$418 (+385%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day 6? Yes 43¢ 78¢ $21 $38 +$17 (+82%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 47¢ 61¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+29%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day 6? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day Jun 18 $9 −$6 -72%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $60 +$20 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day Jun 18 $36 −$20 -56%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $95 +$3 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $37 −$26 -69%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $75 +$99 +131%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $21 −$8 -38%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $43 −$23 -53%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 60 million views on day 5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
43 million or more views Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $66 −$63 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $41 +$116 +280%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $22 +$14 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$14 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $179 −$179 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $59 +$21 +36%
between 41 and 43 million views Jun 02 $300 +$16 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 31 $614 −$614 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 31 $661 −$661 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 31 $2,610 −$1,836 -70%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $275 +$77 +28%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $422 −$175 -42%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 31 $226 −$223 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $510 −$430 -84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $650 −$143 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $700 −$224 -32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $800 +$3 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 22 $526 −$275 -52%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 6 May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 66 million or more views on day 6? May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1,110 −$77 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $430 −$152 -35%
Will MrBeast's next video get 62 million or more views on day 5? May 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 5 May 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 42 and 44 million views on day 2 May 18 $208 +$165 +79%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 18 $81 +$22 +28%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $710 +$802 +113%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 17 $1,009 −$549 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day SELL Yes 79¢ $71 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $5 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day BUY Yes 19¢ $9 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day BUY Yes 48¢ $49 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day BUY Yes 30¢ $12 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day SELL Yes 100¢ $80 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $22 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day SELL Yes 10¢ $7 24h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY Yes 74¢ $25 24h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY Yes 73¢ $34 25h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day SELL Yes 34¢ $9 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $54 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 93¢ $50 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY Yes 36¢ $36 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 94¢ $98 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 91¢ $95 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $97 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $88 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 10¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $10 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 4¢ $11 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 11¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.98 · official $604.98 (match) · 1431 history records