Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x954a…c6b2 world 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%29W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% $0
world 37% −$6
politics 11% $0
other 4% −$2
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.0% -11.4% 60% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 19 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 28 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 0% -9.8%
all 58 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 7% -9.8%
10% -22.4% 7% -18.5%
15% -29.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses29 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage530d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 45¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $26 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $62 −$8 -13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $35 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $19 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $72 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $69 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $32 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $33 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $34 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $406 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $226 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $450 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $248 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 28 $9 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Apr 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $1 $0 -32%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Feb 28 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Feb 22 $11 $0 +1%
Nebraska vs. Northwestern Feb 17 $8 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $29 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $26 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $26 35h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $27 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 50¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 48¢ $26 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $4 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $31 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records