Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9548…1002 weather 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$130 (-1%) realized −$129 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate78%145W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days−$9
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$148
crypto 14% +$58
world 8% +$112
sports 8% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 25% -1.8%
≤30d 55 -3.3% -12.5% 85% 7% -11.4%
≤90d 144 -4.5% -13.6% 83% 24% -11.5%
all 185 -4.7% -13.7% 78% 31% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 31% -11.1%
10% -22.0% 11% -19.7%
15% -29.5% 6% -27.4%
20% -36.4% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses145 / 40
Open positions4
Markets (closed)185 / 189
History coverage160d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 94¢ 92¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? No 88¢ 100¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? No 91¢ 64¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Jun 15 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 −$7 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 04 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $39 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 03 $30 −$15 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 02 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2? Jun 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $30 −$27 -91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 01 $69 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 31? May 31 $40 −$27 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 31? May 31 $44 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 30 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $58 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? May 30 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 29 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 29? May 29 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $44 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 29? May 29 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $48 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May May 28 $42 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 28 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 28 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26? May 27 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 27 $45 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 26 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on May 25? May 26 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $46 −$26 -56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma May 25 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma May 24 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on May 24? May 24 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 23? May 23 $38 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma May 23 $42 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? May 23 $43 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 22 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 22? May 22 $40 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $35 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? BUY No 91¢ $37 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? BUY No 85¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 5? SELL No 61¢ $14 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? BUY No 96¢ $28 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? BUY No 90¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 88¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? BUY No 96¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? BUY No 92¢ $15 13d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? SELL No 46¢ $15 13d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $39 13d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 94¢ $38 13d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $24 13d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 89¢ $30 13d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 13d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $52 13d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? SELL No 9¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2? BUY No 92¢ $28 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2? BUY No 96¢ $30 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2? BUY No 96¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2? BUY No 96¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma SELL No 100¢ $77 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma BUY No 97¢ $16 15d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 31? SELL No 32¢ $13 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.66 · official $103.66 (match) · 387 history records