Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
95 0x9547…47c0 crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$229 (+10%) realized +$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate81%35W / 8L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
crypto 26% +$18
sports 26% +$211
politics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 4 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤90d 10 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.5%
all 43 +5.4% -4.6% 81% 2% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 2% -0.5%
10% -13.7% 2% -10.0%
15% -22.1% 2% -18.7%
20% -29.7% 2% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×32.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×161.44 per $1 lost it wins $161.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses35 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage550d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $36 +$3 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +4%
Will BNB dip to $500 in April? May 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $17 $0 +3%
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? Mar 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December? Jan 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? Jan 26 $18 $0 +0%
Islanders vs. Devils Nov 11 $153 +$211 +138%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 10 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? Oct 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 26 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 26 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 26 $26 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 24 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 24 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 26 $17 +$1 +9%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $18 $0 +2%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 16 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 91¢ $36 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 97¢ $16 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $18 23d
Will BNB dip to $500 in April? BUY No 98¢ $17 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $17 55d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 98¢ $16 84d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $17 84d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 98¢ $17 113d
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? BUY No 98¢ $15 113d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $14 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 96¢ $17 143d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $18 173d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December? BUY No 99¢ $13 173d
Islanders vs. Devils BUY Islanders 42¢ $153 220d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $28 235d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 98¢ $15 235d
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? BUY No 98¢ $28 265d
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? BUY No 95¢ $14 265d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 96¢ $20 296d
Will Solana reach $250 in August? BUY No 96¢ $20 296d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 92¢ $13 329d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $26 329d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 96¢ $15 358d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $22 358d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $18 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 92¢ $17 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $20 421d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.94 · official $29.94 (match) · 90 history records