Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9544…5b9f
world · 38 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$52 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$49 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage480d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 4 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+46%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $142 +$6 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $164 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $82 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $24 +$41 +174%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 10 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $2 $0 -20%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 22 $5 $0 -4%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Titans draft a Quarterback? Apr 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 17 $2 $0 +12%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $11 $0 +3%
St. John's vs. DePaul Mar 04 $9 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 75% +$48
other 17% $0
politics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $71 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $19 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $24 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $13 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $48 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $7 18h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $6 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $30 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $37 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 41h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $82 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $74 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +17.8% +6.6% 40% 10% -3.8%
≤30d 11 +16.2% +5.1% 36% 9% -4.1%
≤90d 11 +16.2% +5.1% 36% 9% -4.1%
all 34 +5.2% -4.8% 50% 9% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 9% -4.7%
10% -14.0% 3% -13.8%
15% -22.3% 3% -22.1%
20% -29.9% 3% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $2.91 (match) · 145 history records