Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
95 0x9540…c128 sports 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$54 (-1%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$2
sports 23% −$68
culture 11% +$1
tech 11% +$1
world 10% +$1
other 10% −$5
crypto 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 +7.6% -2.7% 53% 21% -10.4%
all 21 +16.2% +5.1% 57% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 29% -10.2%
10% -4.9% 29% -18.8%
15% -14.1% 29% -26.6%
20% -22.5% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$798) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage104d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 Apr 06 $11 −$3 -28%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $5 +$4 +89%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $5 +$5 +92%
Oxford United FC vs. Hull City AFC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $12 +$11 +92%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. SD Eibar: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $12 +$12 +100%
Canada vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 Mar 26 $102 −$89 -87%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Mar 25 $47 −$7 -14%
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? Mar 25 $763 −$5 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $765 +$1 +0%
Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard #1 song for Mar 24 $864 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 24 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs? Mar 24 $1,579 +$2 +0%
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 24 $879 +$1 +0%
Will Jason Cherry win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Mar 24 $887 +$2 +0%
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliame Mar 24 $839 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 1PM ET Mar 06 $15 +$15 +100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 05 $5 +$5 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 18d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 19d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 19d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 35d
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 74d
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 75d
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $0 75d
Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $7 76d
Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 76d
Oxford United FC vs. Hull City AFC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $12 77d
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. SD Eibar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $7 77d
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. SD Eibar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $5 77d
Canada vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $9 79d
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 52¢ $7 85d
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 50¢ $95 85d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? SELL Yes $1 85d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? SELL Yes $39 85d
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? SELL No 99¢ $758 85d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? BUY Yes $47 85d
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? BUY No 100¢ $763 85d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 85d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $761 85d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $765 85d
Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard #1 song for SELL No 100¢ $833 85d
Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard #1 song for SELL No 100¢ $31 85d
Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard #1 song for BUY No 100¢ $864 85d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 100¢ $799 85d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 100¢ $798 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records