Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9540…c2bc crypto 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (190 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%331W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day189.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$13
other 2% +$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (190 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 337 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 337 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 337 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover189.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$29 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses331 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)337 / 340
History coverage3d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day189.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 81¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 3¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.28 · official $97.21 · 934 history records