Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x953f…7518 weather 401 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$555 (+1%) realized +$580 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate81%312W / 75L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$322
14 days+$465
30 days+$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$497
other 22% +$872
sports 16% +$190
world 1% −$225
crypto 0% −$6
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +8.0% -2.3% 92% 8% -6.6%
≤30d 107 +6.2% -3.9% 81% 24% -8.3%
≤90d 375 -1.4% -10.8% 80% 21% -9.3%
all 387 -1.1% -10.5% 81% 22% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 22% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 13% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 7% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$32 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1,584
Realized+$580
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses312 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions14
Markets (closed)387 / 401
History coverage112d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $531 $533 +$2 (+0%)
Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+0%)
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $119 $119 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $168 $116 −$51 (-31%)
Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $71 $99 +$27 (+38%)
Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 21¢ $26 $63 +$38 (+149%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $38 $50 +$13 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $104 $46 −$57 (-55%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $131 +$9 +7%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $795 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $309 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $330 +$21 +6%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $68 −$4 -6%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 27 $30 +$36 +120%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 27 $32 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $27 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $798 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,361 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $490 +$10 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $815 +$70 +9%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $139 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $693 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $234 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $903 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $975 +$25 +3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $380 +$20 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,220 +$83 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $135 +$5 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,527 +$73 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $559 +$41 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$3 -10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $596 +$4 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,359 +$51 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $354 −$10 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $395 +$5 +1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 +$20 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $209 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $492 +$61 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 13 $385 −$385 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $163 −$162 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $19 +$7 +35%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $473 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $259 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $382 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $434 +$25 +6%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Landaluce vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $35 +$2 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $119 36m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $288 1h
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 99¢ $104 1h
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $124 1h
Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY No 99¢ $104 1h
Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY No 99¢ $104 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gra BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gra BUY No 99¢ $104 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $795 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $50 11h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? SELL No 91¢ $64 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $14 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $14 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $14 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $19 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $6 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $3 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY No 96¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY No 96¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY No 96¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY No 96¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY No 97¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY No 97¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY No 97¢ $10 11h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 17h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,584.14 · official $1,584.14 (match) · 2790 history records