Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
95 0x953a…aaf2 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$38 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$1,676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$253
14 days+$253
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$161
sports 10% +$194
crypto 5% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +61.0% +45.7% 45% 45% +16.2%
≤30d 12 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +26.5%
≤90d 16 +37.9% +24.8% 44% 44% -4.4%
all 16 +37.9% +24.8% 44% 44% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.8% 44% -4.4%
10% +12.8% 44% -13.6%
15% +1.9% 44% -21.9%
20% -8.1% 38% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +72% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$68 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,676
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)16 / 27
History coverage67d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $400 $511 +$111 (+28%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $418 $459 +$41 (+10%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $380 $377 −$3 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $325 $237 −$88 (-27%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $6 −$44 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $200 +$80 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$125 +305%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $450 −$85 -19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$52 +102%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$128 +624%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$42 +118%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $332 +$234 +70%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $370 −$353 -95%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $30 +$50 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 27h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 27h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $280 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $145 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $220 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $365 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $103 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $149 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 64¢ $78 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,676.35 · official $1,671.72 (match) · 122 history records