Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
95 0x9538…fe3c other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+5%) realized +$20 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$9
politics 16% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.9% +8.4% 100% 100% +8.4%
≤30d 3 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 33% -1.7%
≤90d 3 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 33% -1.7%
all 3 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 33% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 33% -1.7%
10% -13.1% 0% -11.1%
15% -21.5% 0% -19.7%
20% -29.2% 0% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.14 per $1 lost it wins $15.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)3 / 12
History coverage22d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 82¢ 78¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+7%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $31 $0 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $31 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.20 · official $264.28 (match) · 23 history records