Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9538…608e
other · 35 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage449d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 16¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $58 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $6 $0 +8%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 16 $3 $0 -6%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $2 $0 -23%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $9 $0 +3%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 19 $8 $0 +4%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$3
other 28% $0
politics 8% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $8 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $14 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $14 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $50 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 30h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $37 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $6 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $25 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 27% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 27% 0% -8.9%
all 34 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.30 · official $9.30 (match) · 98 history records