Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9535…ccdc sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,159 (-35%) realized −$5,867 · open −$292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%29W / 65L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$62
14 days−$11,639
30 days−$7,268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$6,408
other 4% −$80
crypto 1% −$121
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.5% -40.7% 22% 22% -62.1%
≤30d 84 -34.9% -41.1% 25% 24% -52.0%
≤90d 94 -0.0% -9.5% 31% 30% -42.8%
all 94 -0.0% -9.5% 31% 30% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 30% -42.8%
10% -18.2% 29% -48.3%
15% -26.1% 26% -53.3%
20% -33.3% 22% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +60% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$192 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$5,867
Unrealized−$292
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses29 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions6
Markets (closed)94 / 100
History coverage36d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will Tatsuro Taira be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $138 $1 −$137 (-99%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Yes 57¢ 5¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-91%)
Will Kyoji Horiguchi be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 37¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $25 −$15 -62%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$5 -33%
Panna Udvardy vs. Daria Snigur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 +$6 +127%
Udvardy vs. Snigur: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Udvardy vs. Snigur: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $2 +$3 +127%
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Victoria Mboko vs. Karolina Pliskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Game Handicap: SGW (-1.5) vs Saigon Dino (+1.5) Jun 10 $6 $0 -9%
Udvardy vs. Snigur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Udvardy vs. Snigur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Udvardy vs. Snigur: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Set Handicap: Snigur (-1.5) vs Udvardy (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Udvardy vs Snigur Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-21? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 02 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 02 $350 −$350 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Jun 02 $26 +$2 +7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 02 $656 −$515 -78%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 02 $469 −$469 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 02 $116 −$116 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu Jun 02 $128 −$128 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Kaleido Gaming (BO3) - Asian Champions Jun 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 02 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro Jun 02 $310 −$310 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 02 $154 +$65 +42%
ITF Luan: Jun Hao Luo vs Yaojie Zeng Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Jun 02 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 02 $1,317 −$1,317 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoff Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $44 −$44 -100%
ITF Bol: Tiago Pereira vs Andrey Chepelev Jun 02 $1,676 −$1,676 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Guara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group S Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $231 −$231 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo Jun 02 $48 −$48 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs JiJieHao (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group Jun 02 $262 −$262 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs TYLOO (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group Jun 02 $315 −$315 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $147 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $38 1h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 5¢ $4 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 5¢ $0 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 5¢ $1 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 15¢ $2 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 15¢ $3 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu SELL Rei Sakamoto 14¢ $5 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 27¢ $5 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 31¢ $3 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 31¢ $2 11h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 47¢ $5 11h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 46¢ $5 11h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 43¢ $4 11h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 44¢ $5 11h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 43¢ $1 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu SELL Rei Sakamoto 34¢ $5 11h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 34¢ $5 11h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 39¢ $5 11h
Panna Udvardy vs. Daria Snigur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 38¢ $2 4d
Udvardy vs. Snigur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 4d
Udvardy vs. Snigur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 4d
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 4d
Victoria Mboko vs. Karolina Pliskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 48¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.10 · official $6.10 (match) · 743 history records