Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9532…807e crypto 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%60W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day40.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$17
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +0.7% -8.9% 37% 36% -7.9%
≤30d 146 -4.2% -13.4% 41% 40% -13.7%
≤90d 146 -4.2% -13.4% 41% 40% -13.7%
all 146 -4.2% -13.4% 41% 40% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 40% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 38% -21.9%
15% -29.2% 33% -29.5%
20% -36.2% 24% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day40.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$16 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$9 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$16 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$33 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$11 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$16 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$26 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$5 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 428 history records