Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x9530…ce5a other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$598 (+3%) realized +$555 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%77W / 47L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$411
14 days−$498
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$996
sports 38% +$1,603
crypto 1% −$60
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +53.4% +38.8% 70% 60% +14.6%
≤30d 18 +40.7% +27.3% 67% 61% -16.6%
≤90d 67 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 46% -16.8%
all 124 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 51% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 51% -7.1%
10% -16.0% 43% -16.0%
15% -24.1% 35% -24.1%
20% -31.5% 24% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$89 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$555
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses77 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions6
Markets (closed)124 / 130
History coverage372d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims) Shane Collins 66¢ 66¢ $147 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 86¢ $71 $114 +$43 (+61%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Luana Santos 50¢ 50¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $78 +$132 +170%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $656 +$85 +13%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 19 $2 −$1 -64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 +$92 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$33 +49%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $22 +$80 +365%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $148 +$74 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $331 +$20 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$8 -17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $96 −$96 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 +$53 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $900 −$900 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 10 $109 −$109 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 09 $55 +$47 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $42 −$41 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 02 $103 +$156 +151%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $122 +$100 +82%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $70 +$50 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $419 +$52 +12%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 19 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $200 +$40 +20%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $202 +$101 +50%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $332 +$91 +28%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $135 +$87 +64%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $97 +$209 +216%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 09 $90 −$88 -98%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles May 09 $9 −$9 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $139 +$38 +27%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $238 −$236 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $173 +$127 +73%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $131 −$3 -2%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $113 −$113 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $257 +$77 +30%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $154 +$45 +29%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 19 $192 +$8 +4%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $246 +$114 +46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 18 $267 −$267 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $71 +$29 +40%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $76 +$75 +99%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $8 −$6 -70%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $7 $0 +1%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $102 +$98 +97%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 12 $148 +$99 +67%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $279 +$20 +7%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $66 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $82 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 50¢ $62 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $370 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $287 28h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 28h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes $1 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $118 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $22 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $148 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 78¢ $39 5d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $135 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $114 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $65 6d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.10 · official $348.10 (match) · 426 history records