Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x952d…8bdf world 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%28W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
politics 26% −$2
other 18% −$4
sports 15% −$4
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.3% -7.5% 20% 20% -9.4%
≤30d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 32% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 1% -9.5%
all 77 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -24.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses28 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage526d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 67¢ 66¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 63¢ 42¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $43 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $4 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $74 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 29 $87 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $81 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $175 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $75 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $80 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $18 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $23 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $35 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $7 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.93 · official $36.58 (match) · 300 history records