Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

95 0x952b…f666 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$21 (-19%) realized −$2 · open −$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip

Net edge-65%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-65.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-61.3%	-65.0%	0%	0%	-42.1%
≤30d	2	-61.3%	-65.0%	0%	0%	-42.1%
≤90d	2	-61.3%	-65.0%	0%	0%	-42.1%
all	2	-61.3%	-65.0%	0%	0%	-42.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-65.0%	0%	-42.1%
10%	-68.3%	0%	-47.7%
15%	-71.4%	0%	-52.7%
20%	-74.2%	0%	-57.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -36% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -61% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$11 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized−$2

Unrealized−$19

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage5d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	9¢	6¢	$48	$29	−$19 (-39%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$50	−$11	-23%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$11	−$10	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	10¢	$38	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$50	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	12¢	$50	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$11	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.29 · official $29.29 (match) · 4 history records