Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x952a…bdc8 sports 286 markets active 2h ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10,285 (+2%) realized +$10,323 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate88%250W / 35L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,869per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$525est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,001
7 days−$1,280
14 days−$2,892
30 days−$4,510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$3,205
world 27% +$5,717
other 10% +$1,367
politics 1% +$98
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +0.9% -8.7% 74% 48% -12.7%
≤30d 99 -1.1% -10.6% 76% 39% -12.2%
≤90d 114 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 34% -9.8%
all 285 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 19% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 19% -7.6%
10% -16.7% 9% -16.5%
15% -24.7% 5% -24.5%
20% -32.1% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$2,130) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$548 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized+$10,323
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses250 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$525
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage644d
Avg bet$1,869
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Execration 82¢ 77¢ $602 $564 −$38 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $292 +$59 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $513 +$16 +3%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $685 +$380 +56%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $576 +$108 +19%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $551 +$28 +5%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 21 $455 +$93 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $430 +$28 +6%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $233 +$190 +82%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $402 +$3 +1%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $327 −$327 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $549 +$113 +21%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $379 +$170 +45%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $240 +$140 +58%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $76 +$162 +212%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $149 −$147 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $178 −$177 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $146 +$28 +19%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $62 +$33 +54%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $87 +$28 +32%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $67 −$66 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $218 −$218 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $135 +$23 +17%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $185 +$15 +8%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $1,372 −$520 -38%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $171 +$28 +16%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $158 +$14 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $392 −$89 -23%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $217 +$31 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $185 −$58 -31%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $337 +$30 +9%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $295 +$42 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $462 −$103 -22%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $106 +$8 +7%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $294 +$92 +31%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $264 +$29 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $229 +$36 +16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $540 −$540 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $253 +$171 +67%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $250 +$121 +48%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $281 −$281 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $214 +$69 +32%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $362 +$47 +13%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $162 +$55 +34%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $1,124 −$698 -62%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $1,020 +$42 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $17,516 +$230 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $848 −$846 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $779 +$67 +9%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $736 +$45 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $719 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 80¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $11 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 84¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 82¢ $163 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 82¢ $165 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 83¢ $128 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 83¢ $18 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 83¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 83¢ $142 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $513 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $511 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 86¢ $148 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $137 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 50¢ $71 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 61¢ $466 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $547 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 84¢ $39 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 84¢ $52 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 84¢ $484 18h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $578 18h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 95¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $564.25 · official $564.25 (match) · 3083 history records