Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9528…351f crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$118 (-4%) realized −$90 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%111W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day132.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +2.9% -6.9% 70% 70% -20.1%
≤30d 158 +2.9% -6.9% 70% 70% -20.1%
≤90d 158 +2.9% -6.9% 70% 70% -20.1%
all 158 +2.9% -6.9% 70% 70% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 70% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 68% -27.7%
15% -23.9% 67% -34.7%
20% -31.4% 7% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses111 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day132.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 70¢ 30¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $49 +$22 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $47 +$25 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $49 +$23 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $50 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $33 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $50 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $50 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.77 · official $21.77 (match) · 372 history records