Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9527…f108 crypto 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (202 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,676 (+133%) realized +$1,554 · open +$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%57W / 203L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day202.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$149
14 days+$445
30 days+$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$263
crypto 40% +$408
other 4% +$5
politics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (202 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -51.6% -56.2% 17% 17% -37.7%
≤30d 260 +18.0% +6.8% 22% 22% +3.9%
≤90d 260 +18.0% +6.8% 22% 22% +3.9%
all 260 +18.0% +6.8% 22% 22% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover202.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 22% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 20% -6.1%
15% -12.8% 17% -15.2%
20% -21.3% 16% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +92% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$3 · ×6.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$1,554
Unrealized+$122
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses57 / 203
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions55
Markets (closed)260 / 296
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day202.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 9¢ 52¢ $24 $129 +$105 (+447%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 6¢ 19¢ $7 $20 +$14 (+200%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+55%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 43¢ 90¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+108%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+174%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+152%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+73%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026? Yes 82¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? Yes 49¢ 83¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+71%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+426%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+76%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+283%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $13 +$20 +155%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $14 −$9 -67%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $9 +$14 +145%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $8 −$7 -81%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 15 $21 +$7 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $6 +$11 +180%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $17 −$6 -33%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $21 −$6 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$7 +162%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $21 +$5 +22%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 14 $9 −$5 -59%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $14 −$5 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $4 +$7 +168%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $3 −$2 -54%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $15 −$12 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 1¢ $1 8m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 63¢ $3 8m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 3¢ $1 8m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 3¢ $0 9m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 3¢ $0 9m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 3¢ $0 9m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 3¢ $0 9m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 3¢ $0 9m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 3¢ $0 9m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 7¢ $3 9m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 20¢ $4 10m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 39¢ $6 14m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 55¢ $6 17m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 43¢ $2 19m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 63¢ $1 28m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 63¢ $3 28m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 55¢ $1 29m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 55¢ $1 30m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 55¢ $1 33m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 53¢ $3 34m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 44¢ $0 34m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 46¢ $0 35m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 41¢ $2 36m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 31¢ $1 38m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 31¢ $1 38m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 26¢ $1 41m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 31¢ $2 42m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 34¢ $2 43m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 34¢ $3 44m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Sachia Vickery 35¢ $3 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.78 · official $264.65 (match) · 3500 history records