Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9526…e17b sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%32W / 92L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$17
other 21% −$2
politics 19% −$8
crypto 10% −$1
economics 8% −$2
culture 5% $0
finance 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 0% -9.6%
all 124 -0.1% -9.6% 26% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses32 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage163d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $292 +$1 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $47 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 15 $57 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $191 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $184 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $187 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 27 $570 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 27 $186 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $581 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 26 $376 −$3 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 26 $189 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 25 $192 +$1 +1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $377 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 25 $191 +$2 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $389 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 24 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $185 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 22 $194 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 22 $416 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $388 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 21 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $618 −$2 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 20 $576 +$2 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $802 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $392 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $824 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 17 $195 $0 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $198 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 13 $189 −$3 -1%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 13 $189 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 12 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $197 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 12 $203 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 11 $196 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $55 1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $56 9h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $56 11d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $56 11d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $47 24d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $47 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $57 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $57 36d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $191 84d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $191 84d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $184 84d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $174 84d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 84d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $185 84d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $74 84d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $34 84d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $43 84d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $36 84d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $187 84d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $187 85d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $189 85d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $28 85d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $24 85d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $116 85d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $21 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL No 94¢ $186 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $37 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $144 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $6 85d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $183 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 543 history records