Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
95 0x9524…a60a economics 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy economics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate83%20W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% +$18
sports 28% +$54
politics 4% +$9
culture 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.8% -54.6% 50% 0% -40.8%
≤30d 3 -32.9% -39.3% 67% 0% -28.2%
≤90d 5 -19.3% -27.0% 80% 0% -20.9%
all 24 +0.3% -9.3% 83% 21% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 21% -9.9%
10% -18.0% 12% -18.6%
15% -25.9% 8% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$65 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses20 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage238d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pacers vs. Raptors Jun 30 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 30 $178 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 03 $177 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 07 $88 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 14 $173 +$3 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 25 $170 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $253 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 26 $83 +$1 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $159 +$4 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $80 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $80 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $99 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Wizards Nov 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Nov 25 $80 +$20 +25%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Nov 24 $91 +$9 +10%
Kings vs. Nuggets Nov 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Nov 22 $88 +$12 +14%
Clippers vs. Magic Nov 21 $68 +$32 +47%
Kings vs. Thunder Nov 20 $93 +$7 +8%
Warriors vs. Magic Nov 19 $78 +$122 +156%
Pacers vs. Pistons Nov 18 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 17 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $90 59m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $89 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $89 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $89 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $89 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $89 48d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $89 48d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $88 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $88 76d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $88 76d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $88 82d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $88 82d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $85 96d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $85 110d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 99¢ $85 110d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $84 114d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $84 114d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $85 115d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $85 115d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $85 116d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 99¢ $85 116d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $84 123d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $83 154d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $83 154d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 164d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $80 164d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $80 180d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $80 180d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $80 189d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $58 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.95 · official $89.95 (match) · 60 history records