Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9523…dd2f world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-2%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$3
other 29% −$16
sports 23% −$3
politics 11% −$4
finance 6% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 18% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 26% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 31 -0.7% -10.1% 32% 0% -10.3%
all 35 -6.3% -15.2% 31% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -10.9%
10% -23.3% 0% -19.5%
15% -30.7% 0% -27.2%
20% -37.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage527d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $39 −$3 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $34 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $81 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $88 −$7 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $13 −$1 -11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 17 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $145 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $284 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $47 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 10 $258 $0 +0%
St. Bonaventure vs. Massachusetts Feb 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Curtis Samuel score a touchdown? Feb 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 24 $3 $0 +0%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 18 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $7 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $17 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $13 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $37 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $24 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $22 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $23 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $23 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $12 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.00 · official $37.00 (match) · 105 history records