Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x9519…e0bc sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$194 (+3%) realized +$205 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate74%90W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$379
other 20% +$84
crypto 17% −$25
tech 5% −$260
world 1% +$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 41 +5.6% -4.5% 76% 61% -4.4%
all 121 +4.8% -5.2% 74% 59% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 59% -6.4%
10% -14.2% 42% -15.4%
15% -22.5% 26% -23.6%
20% -30.1% 13% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$40 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses90 / 31
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)121 / 131
History coverage224d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs I May 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Parma: Victoria Bosio vs Dayana Yastremska May 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien May 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud May 13 $20 +$11 +52%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Scotland May 13 $20 +$16 +79%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $20 −$20 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 12 $10 $0 -3%
Suns vs. Thunder May 12 $10 $0 -3%
Magic vs. Pistons May 12 $20 +$6 +27%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 29 $20 +$8 +38%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 23 $20 +$4 +18%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 23 $20 +$5 +24%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 23 $20 +$6 +31%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Auburn Tigers Apr 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Magic vs. Pelicans Apr 23 $20 +$12 +62%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 23 $20 +$13 +67%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 04 $20 −$20 -99%
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Louisville Cardinals Apr 04 $20 +$7 +37%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 04 $20 +$16 +78%
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers Apr 04 $40 +$7 +16%
Texas Southern Tigers vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats Apr 04 $40 +$11 +28%
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28? Apr 04 $50 +$2 +5%
Alcorn State Braves vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils Apr 04 $40 +$13 +32%
Navy Midshipmen vs. Bucknell Bison Apr 04 $40 +$13 +32%
Alabama State Hornets vs. Southern Jaguars Apr 04 $40 +$13 +32%
Jackson State Tigers vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Apr 04 $40 +$13 +33%
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs. Nicholls Colonels Apr 04 $40 +$29 +72%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Apr 04 $20 +$1 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Apr 04 $20 +$1 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Apr 04 $20 +$2 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Apr 04 $20 +$2 +10%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Murray State Racers Feb 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Evansville Aces Feb 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Northwestern State Demons vs. Lamar Cardinals Feb 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Receiving Yards O/U 90.5 Feb 09 $27 −$27 -99%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Grambling State Tigers Feb 09 $20 −$1 -4%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $20 +$10 +49%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $550 +$111 +20%
Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 Feb 09 $38 −$33 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Parma: Victoria Bosio vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 86¢ $20 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien BUY Rafael Jodar 77¢ $20 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 64¢ $20 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 65¢ $20 42d
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs I BUY Japan 86¢ $20 42d
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Scotland BUY Scotland 55¢ $20 42d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 79¢ $20 42d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 51¢ $10 54d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 77¢ $20 54d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 78¢ $20 54d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 51¢ $10 54d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 67¢ $20 54d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 68¢ $20 54d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 62¢ $20 54d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 72¢ $20 60d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Bulls 76¢ $20 79d
Lakers vs. Mavericks BUY Lakers 71¢ $20 79d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 53¢ $20 79d
Magic vs. Pelicans BUY Magic 61¢ $20 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.48 · official $429.82 (match) · 275 history records