Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9517…fa34
politics · 120 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$61 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$60 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$117
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage95d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $233 −$2 -1%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $64 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $45 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $123 −$2 -2%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $158 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $121 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 02 $10 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $311 −$2 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $416 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $159 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $48 −$5 -10%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 22 $110 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $232 −$2 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 26% −$18
other 26% −$17
sports 16% −$9
crypto 13% −$3
culture 6% −$6
world 4% −$6
finance 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $58 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $58 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $58 2h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $59 10h
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $28 10h
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 16h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 17h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 23h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $59 24h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $61 31h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $19 31h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $19 39h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 40h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $51 47h
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL No 93¢ $63 2d
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY No 95¢ $64 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 92¢ $37 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $38 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $50 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $50 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $46 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 5d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 95¢ $46 5d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 95¢ $46 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $44 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 56 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 110 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 118 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.93 · official $116.93 (match) · 466 history records