Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x950f…a521 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$1,799 (+17%) realized +$1,799 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +157% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +123% what you keep after slip
Net edge+123%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,725per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$5,616
sports 9% +$4,814
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+132.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +156.9% +132.4% 50% 50% -16.8%
≤30d 6 +156.9% +132.4% 50% 50% -16.8%
≤90d 6 +156.9% +132.4% 50% 50% -16.8%
all 6 +156.9% +132.4% 50% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +132.4% 50% -16.8%
10% +110.2% 50% -24.7%
15% +89.9% 50% -32.0%
20% +71.3% 50% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +157% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,308 vs −$2,575 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,799
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,725
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,615 −$2,544 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,784 −$4,196 -88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$984 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $454 +$2,824 +622%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $998 +$2,108 +211%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $487 +$1,991 +408%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 38m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,498 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,108 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2,004 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2,267 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $497 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,278 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $454 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 15¢ $457 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $2,295 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 85¢ $811 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $500 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $498 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,478 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $487 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records