Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x950d…dac5 other 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (901 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$89 (+55%) realized −$15 · open +$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day900.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$4
other 38% +$94
politics 9% +$1
world 8% +$4
finance 3% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (901 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.1% -24.1% 18% 12% -18.7%
≤30d 17 -16.1% -24.1% 18% 12% -18.7%
≤90d 17 -16.1% -24.1% 18% 12% -18.7%
all 17 -16.1% -24.1% 18% 12% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover900.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 12% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 12% -26.5%
15% -38.0% 6% -33.6%
20% -44.1% 0% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$104
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions87
Markets (closed)17 / 104
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day900.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 87 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $28 $126 +$98 (+350%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+325%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+750%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+100%)
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Bill Gates charged by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -34%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 25 $1 $0 -5%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -10%
Anthropic CEO arrested? Jun 25 $0 $0 -37%
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? Jun 25 $1 $0 -53%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -37%
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? Jun 25 $1 $0 -34%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $1 $0 -13%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 24 $0 $0 +24%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 24 $3 $0 +7%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Jun 24 $0 $0 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 24 $16 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 23 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.80 · official $202.92 (match) · 2039 history records