Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
95 0x950d…c502 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$372 (+9%) realized +$393 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate78%39W / 11L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +12.6% +1.9% 78% 58% -1.7%
≤30d 50 +12.6% +1.9% 78% 58% -1.7%
≤90d 50 +12.6% +1.9% 78% 58% -1.7%
all 50 +12.6% +1.9% 78% 58% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 58% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 40% -11.1%
15% -16.7% 32% -19.7%
20% -24.9% 24% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$53 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$393
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses39 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage1d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 75¢ 69¢ $300 $279 −$21 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $77 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $152 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $204 −$93 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$32 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $154 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $128 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $102 −$36 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $153 +$138 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $227 +$42 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $127 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$89 +171%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $305 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.92 · official $278.92 (match) · 119 history records