Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9507…7b04
other · 284 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$887,764 +47%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,090,328 · open −$208,727
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,712,657
Realized+$1,090,328
Unrealized−$208,727
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses85 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions380
Markets (closed)88 / 284
Avg bet$6,646
Trades / day341.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 380 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18,760
7 days+$23,933
14 days+$1,090,328
30 days+$1,090,328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $325,000 $552,825 +$227,825 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $325,000 $97,175 −$227,825 (-70%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $45,796 $46,438 +$643 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $38,570 $42,612 +$4,042 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $34,513 $34,495 −$17 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $28,761 $28,854 +$93 (+0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $27,160 $26,720 −$440 (-2%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $25,047 $25,236 +$189 (+1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 88¢ 91¢ $22,772 $23,617 +$844 (+4%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 98¢ 96¢ $22,317 $21,875 −$442 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $21,001 $21,035 +$33 (+0%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20,957 $20,990 +$33 (+0%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $20,655 $20,533 −$122 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 99¢ 99¢ $20,077 $19,956 −$121 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $19,820 $19,880 +$60 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $19,860 $19,870 +$10 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $18,784 $19,749 +$965 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? No 100¢ 100¢ $15,101 $15,115 +$14 (+0%)
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $15,040 $15,051 +$11 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $14,805 $14,903 +$98 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $14,650 $14,632 −$17 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? No 100¢ 100¢ $14,554 $14,571 +$17 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $13,120 $13,206 +$86 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $13,020 $13,088 +$68 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 67¢ 64¢ $13,593 $13,023 −$571 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? Jun 12 $4,436 +$4 +0%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31? Jun 12 $5,605 +$623 +11%
Will there be exactly 4 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Final Jun 12 $473 $0 +0%
Syria leading at halftime? Jun 12 $17,305 +$141 +1%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $885 +$7 +1%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $295 +$30 +10%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,277 +$51 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $161 +$4 +2%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 11 $1,827 +$23 +1%
Will it rain in San Francisco on June 9? Jun 11 $187 +$3 +1%
Will it rain in Atlanta on June 9? Jun 11 $279 +$1 +0%
Will it rain in Boston on June 9? Jun 11 $210 $0 +0%
Will it rain in Dallas on June 9? Jun 11 $235 $0 +0%
Will it rain in Denver on June 9? Jun 11 $275 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $187 $0 +0%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $2,711 +$4 +0%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $5,629 +$14 +0%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $4,214 +$4 +0%
Will Global Esports be the last APAC team standing at Masters London Jun 11 $410 +$1 +0%
Will NRG be the last AMER team standing at Masters London Jun 11 $410 +$1 +0%
Will Jimmy Parker advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $152 $0 +0%
Will Leo Zacky advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $2,500 +$2 +0%
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $199 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $12,640 +$17,845 +141%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $264 +$8 +3%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at mark Jun 10 $87 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $134 $0 +0%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $870 +$1 +0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $210 +$2 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $483 +$19 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $370 +$36 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $2,084 +$62 +3%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $1,198 +$8 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $999 +$1 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $6,210 +$8 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $5,990 +$10 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $9,034 +$245 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $5,205 +$5 +0%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $4,970 +$30 +1%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $107 +$1 +0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $445 +$18 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $367 +$2 +1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 08 $1,168 +$7 +1%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1,342 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 40% −$203,389
other 20% +$13,763
tech 14% −$333
crypto 11% +$1,066,924
world 6% +$1,703
finance 4% +$214
sports 4% +$1,410
culture 1% +$1,310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 2m
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $318 2m
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $257 5m
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $45 11m
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? BUY No 99¢ $199 11m
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $254 15m
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 32m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 48m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 48m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 49m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 49m
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 53m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +4.8% -5.2% 98% 12% -2.3%
≤30d 88 +10.3% -0.2% 97% 12% +196.1%
≤90d 88 +10.3% -0.2% 97% 12% +196.1%
all 88 +10.3% -0.2% 97% 12% +196.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover341.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 12% +196.1%
10% -9.8% 6% +167.7%
15% ← realistic here -18.5% 5% +141.9%
20% -26.5% 3% +118.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,712,657.08 · official $1,712,655.02 (match) · 3500 history records