Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
95 0x9504…1e0d crypto 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%72W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$11
world 1% −$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +5.5% -4.6% 73% 61% -7.8%
≤30d 67 +5.5% -4.6% 73% 61% -7.8%
≤90d 67 +5.5% -4.6% 73% 61% -7.8%
all 148 +1.6% -8.1% 49% 43% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 43% -10.8%
10% -16.9% 28% -19.3%
15% -24.9% 21% -27.1%
20% -32.3% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses72 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage107d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $14 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records