Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9502…ba22 crypto 959 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$798 (-2%) realized −$798 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%486W / 473L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$329
7 days−$559
14 days−$781
30 days−$1,289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$501
weather 4% −$196
sports 1% +$105
other 1% −$82
world 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 -18.4% -26.2% 42% 42% -18.4%
≤30d 760 -6.2% -15.1% 49% 48% -13.9%
≤90d 959 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 49% -11.2%
all 959 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 49% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 49% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 47% -19.7%
15% -29.5% 46% -27.5%
20% -36.4% 44% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$30 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$798
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses486 / 473
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)959 / 959
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 959 Trades
no open positions (137 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$26 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$36 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$17 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $45 +$35 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $636 +$564 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $37 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records