Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9502…a470
weather · 83 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$172 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$171 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$124
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses38 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions25
Markets (closed)58 / 83
History coverage75d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 25 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? No 73¢ 99¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? No 76¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 88¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? No 92¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 93¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 82¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? No 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? No 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 85¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? No 86¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? No 82¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$16 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $10 +$41 +409%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $10 +$3 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (April 19) Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Apr 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $56 −$35 -63%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $100 −$61 -61%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 15 $146 +$76 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 12 $50 −$40 -80%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Apr 08 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Heat (-18.5) Apr 04 $10 +$6 +58%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $10 +$1 +13%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 238.5 Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5 Apr 04 $10 +$8 +83%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3? Apr 03 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31? Apr 03 $110 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% −$144
crypto 22% +$21
weather 20% +$12
sports 14% −$65
politics 3% −$29
finance 3% +$43
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 29m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.5% +1.8% 74% 63% +2.6%
≤30d 19 +12.5% +1.8% 74% 63% +2.6%
≤90d 58 -3.8% -12.9% 66% 43% -24.8%
all 58 -3.8% -12.9% 66% 43% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 43% -24.8%
10% -21.3% 33% -32.0%
15% -28.9% 26% -38.5%
20% -35.8% 12% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.55 · official $123.55 (match) · 168 history records