Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x9500…730c crypto 133 markets active 23h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate92%122W / 11L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$19
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$53
other 0% −$4
world 0% −$4
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.3% -3.8% 72% 44% -8.2%
≤30d 42 +10.4% -0.1% 83% 29% -7.9%
≤90d 85 +5.1% -4.9% 89% 14% -8.9%
all 133 +3.5% -6.3% 92% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 10% -9.2%
10% -15.3% 5% -17.9%
15% -23.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -31.0% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses122 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage134d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $145 +$2 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $134 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $139 +$3 +2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $138 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $134 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $133 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $130 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $127 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $124 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $121 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $112 +$8 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $107 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $147 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $145 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $1 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $1 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $2 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $134 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $139 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $141 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $138 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $138 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records