Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9500…f530 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%4W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$6
other 33% −$2
tech 6% −$8
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 2 -24.9% -32.1% 0% 0% -13.5%
≤90d 6 -38.1% -44.0% 0% 0% -14.6%
all 25 -24.9% -32.0% 16% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 0% -11.2%
10% -38.5% 0% -19.7%
15% -44.5% 0% -27.4%
20% -49.9% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses4 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage217d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill? May 24 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1 $0 -18%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $134 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 09 $54 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Nov 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Bam Adebayo win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Nov 24 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 23 $2 −$1 -74%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November Nov 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 13 $157 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY No 99¢ $3 28d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 58d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 62d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 69d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $1 71d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 79d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 82d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 90d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 94d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $32 100d
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $1 105d
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $1 112d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 115d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 122d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 125d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 132d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $60 137d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $60 145d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $58 148d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $58 155d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $1 164d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $51 167d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $51 175d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $134 178d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $134 186d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 189d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 195d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes $0 201d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes $0 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records