Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94fd…ab25 world 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$13
politics 31% $0
other 26% +$1
sports 4% −$8
economics 3% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 62% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 21 -1.1% -10.6% 48% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 67 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 1% -10.0%
all 71 -1.3% -10.7% 35% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 1% -10.2%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage521d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 61¢ 67¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $56 −$13 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $27 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $112 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $54 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $27 −$2 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $113 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $46 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $78 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $123 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $42 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $3 $0 +6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $44 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $35 +$1 +4%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $27 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $26 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $27 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.00 (match) · 265 history records