Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94fd…7fef sports 479 markets active 10h ago coverage 66d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,384 (-6%) realized −$1,384 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate34%164W / 315L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$477est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$21
14 days−$101
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$502
crypto 7% −$176
other 7% −$818
world 0% −$4
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 29% 14% -11.8%
≤30d 84 -12.4% -20.7% 18% 7% -12.9%
≤90d 479 -8.7% -17.4% 34% 23% -15.1%
all 479 -8.7% -17.4% 34% 23% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 23% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 18% -23.2%
15% -32.5% 11% -30.6%
20% -39.1% 4% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses164 / 315
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$477
Open positions0
Markets (closed)479 / 479
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 479 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $262 −$29 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$4 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $61 +$27 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $81 −$5 -7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $81 +$1 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $183 −$7 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $243 −$29 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $347 −$44 -13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $182 −$7 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $182 +$17 +10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 01 $125 −$37 -30%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $102 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $446 −$57 -13%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $61 −$12 -20%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 28 $224 −$34 -15%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 28 $609 −$91 -15%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 28 $467 −$37 -8%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 28 $163 −$16 -10%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $21 −$5 -25%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $20 −$11 -55%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5 May 27 $20 −$3 -14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $142 −$12 -8%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $20 −$9 -46%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Daniel Milavsky May 27 $20 −$2 -12%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5 May 27 $20 −$11 -52%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 May 27 $40 −$8 -21%
Little Rock: Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic May 27 $102 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $122 −$28 -23%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $122 −$27 -22%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $203 −$38 -19%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $162 −$22 -14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $20 +$1 +7%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) May 27 $20 −$3 -15%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 May 27 $20 −$3 -15%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5 May 27 $20 −$4 -19%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 27 $20 −$4 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul May 27 $20 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 27 $299 −$27 -9%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 27 $1,510 −$91 -6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 May 27 $20 −$4 -21%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) May 27 $61 −$16 -26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 May 27 $20 −$3 -13%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 May 27 $20 −$2 -11%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 27 $424 −$27 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $730 +$98 +14%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 May 27 $20 −$5 -23%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 May 27 $20 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records