Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94fa…bf93 other 50 markets active 3d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate78%29W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$7
crypto 13% +$7
sports 13% +$4
politics 12% +$5
finance 9% −$6
world 6% +$1
culture 4% +$2
economics 3% −$2
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.5% +16.3% 100% 100% +16.3%
≤30d 11 +10.9% +0.3% 73% 45% -1.0%
≤90d 33 +2.6% -7.2% 76% 30% -8.7%
all 37 +3.3% -6.6% 78% 30% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 30% -8.3%
10% -15.5% 19% -17.1%
15% -23.7% 3% -25.1%
20% -31.2% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses29 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)37 / 50
History coverage103d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+19%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 54¢ 19¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 82¢ 77¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $14 +$4 +28%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $9 +$2 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 03 $16 +$3 +17%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 26 $17 +$2 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $9 +$3 +34%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $7 +$3 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 05 $16 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 28 $24 −$12 -49%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $14 +$1 +6%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 02 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 02 $10 +$2 +22%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $31 +$9 +28%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $16 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $17 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $17 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $18 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $18 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $19 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL No 87¢ $8 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $8 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $9 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 9d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $14 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 16d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $0 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $8 16d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $15 16d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 97¢ $15 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $5 24d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 24d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.67 · official $42.24 · 168 history records