Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94f8…e851 sports 470 markets active 2h ago coverage 681d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,386 (-4%) realized −$9,386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%286W / 184L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$646est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$142
14 days−$170
30 days+$4,677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$2,494
crypto 19% −$3,526
other 6% −$3,353
world 2% −$332
politics 1% −$229
weather 0% −$21
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -31.2% -37.7% 43% 43% -14.1%
≤30d 78 +4.6% -5.4% 69% 69% +3.5%
≤90d 172 -16.2% -24.2% 54% 52% -17.8%
all 470 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 44% -13.4%
10% -22.5% 38% -21.7%
15% -30.0% 26% -29.3%
20% -36.9% 19% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$620) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$296 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

681d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses286 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$646
Open positions0
Markets (closed)470 / 470
History coverage681d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 470 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $455 −$412 -91%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $149 −$84 -57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $313 +$112 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,188 +$647 +54%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 19 $277 −$277 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $210 +$67 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $210 −$195 -93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $198 −$198 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $460 −$460 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $192 +$72 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $106 +$86 +81%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $362 −$362 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +83%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $351 +$396 +113%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $314 −$235 -75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $274 +$141 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$28 -91%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $219 +$118 +54%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $199 −$199 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $887 +$1,011 +114%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $250 −$250 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $176 +$22 +12%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $866 −$847 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $303 +$117 +39%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 07 $266 +$101 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $120 +$95 +79%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $635 +$234 +37%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $505 +$129 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$4 +73%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 07 $197 +$103 +52%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $499 +$207 +41%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3,147 +$707 +22%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$6 +67%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $2,022 +$1,421 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 06 $502 −$502 -100%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $453 +$154 +34%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 05 $550 +$274 +50%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $357 +$194 +54%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $513 −$453 -88%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $436 +$77 +18%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $394 +$42 +11%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $306 +$88 +29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $401 −$382 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $143 −$143 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $429 −$429 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $528 +$185 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 4¢ $42 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $453 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 26¢ $64 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $149 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $424 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $313 26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,835 26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $1,186 29h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 65¢ $277 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $277 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $210 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 3¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $210 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 51¢ $1 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 51¢ $459 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $198 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $264 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $192 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $192 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $106 9d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 70¢ $4 10d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 70¢ $358 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 11d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $747 11d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 34¢ $13 11d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 24¢ $31 11d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 25¢ $26 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2298 history records