trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $54 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 13 | $52 | +$1 | +3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $59 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $109 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 11 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $85 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 01 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 06 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 6? | Jun 05 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? | Jun 04 | $23 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 03 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will R win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election | Jun 03 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? | Jun 02 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea | Jun 01 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel military action against Iran before June? | Jun 01 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | May 31 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? | May 29 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | May 29 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? | May 28 | $22 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 43% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 43% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 43% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 21 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 48% | 0% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -33.0% |