Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94f2…2945 crypto 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-3%) realized −$71 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%136W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 +7.8% -2.4% 65% 47% -14.0%
≤30d 209 +7.8% -2.4% 65% 47% -14.0%
≤90d 209 +7.8% -2.4% 65% 47% -14.0%
all 215 +5.9% -4.2% 63% 47% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 47% -16.0%
10% -13.4% 33% -24.0%
15% -21.7% 26% -31.4%
20% -29.4% 23% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses136 / 79
Open positions6
Markets (closed)215 / 221
History coverage108d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 29¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 32¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 32¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$22 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$21 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$13 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $65 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$26 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $65 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $23 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $11 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.02 · official $12.67 (match) · 599 history records