Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x94f1…54a1 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,388 (+4%) realized +$2,648 · open −$260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%31W / 31L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$676per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$460est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$22,782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,611
7 days+$3,646
14 days+$2,471
30 days+$2,471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$673
other 43% +$1,537
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 52% +1.6%
≤30d 62 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% -2.8%
≤90d 62 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% -2.8%
all 62 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 50% -2.8%
10% -18.7% 50% -12.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 50% -20.6%
20% -33.8% 48% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$546 vs −$467 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$22,782
Realized+$2,648
Unrealized−$260
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses31 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$460
Open positions22
Markets (closed)62 / 84
History coverage12d
Avg bet$676
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $3,520 $4,345 +$825 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3,422 $2,805 −$618 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $1,488 $2,262 +$774 (+52%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1,728 $1,976 +$248 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $3,024 $1,890 −$1,134 (-37%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 53¢ 52¢ $1,108 $1,097 −$10 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 63¢ $687 $917 +$230 (+33%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 43¢ 44¢ $860 $890 +$30 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1,344 $808 −$536 (-40%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 61¢ 62¢ $762 $769 +$6 (+1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $751 $757 +$6 (+1%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Over 51¢ 50¢ $637 $631 −$6 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 57¢ $580 $570 −$10 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $520 $565 +$45 (+9%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $580 $565 −$15 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $448 $550 +$102 (+23%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 51¢ $520 $510 −$10 (-2%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $510 $505 −$5 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $336 $184 −$152 (-45%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $162 $130 −$32 (-19%)
Yoane Wissa: 2+ shots Yes 56¢ 62¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+10%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 55¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $560 +$440 +79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,224 +$1,776 +145%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $467 +$435 +93%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $577 +$423 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $557 +$443 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $607 −$600 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $164 −$160 -98%
Emam Ashour: 2+ shots Jun 22 $6 +$11 +186%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $239 +$261 +109%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $701 +$799 +114%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 22 $690 +$810 +117%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $587 +$413 +70%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 21 $325 −$321 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $658 −$651 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $547 +$453 +83%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $411 −$410 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $597 −$590 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $487 −$480 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $467 +$533 +114%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $199 +$301 +152%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $751 +$549 +73%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $131 −$130 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $960 +$1,040 +108%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $178 −$175 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $791 −$780 -99%
Alexander Isak: 3+ shots Jun 20 $265 −$265 -100%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 3+ shots Jun 20 $25 +$44 +176%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $460 −$460 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $457 −$450 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $417 −$410 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $377 −$370 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $512 −$500 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $527 +$473 +90%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $597 +$403 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $461 +$289 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $597 +$403 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $536 −$530 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $477 −$470 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $437 −$435 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $467 −$460 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,214 +$786 +65%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $1,113 +$887 +80%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $687 +$313 +46%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $537 +$463 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $309 +$191 +62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $232 +$150 +65%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $380 −$380 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $215 −$215 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Yoane Wissa: 2+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $18 44m
Yoane Wissa: 2+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $17 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $527 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $587 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $587 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $517 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $771 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $647 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $1,123 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $759 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $875 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $794 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $102 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $357 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $6 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $1 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $68 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $13 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $68 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $125 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $64 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $125 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $557 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $607 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,782.48 · official $22,784.28 (match) · 457 history records