Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

94 0x94f1…55e5 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$387 (-40%) realized −$303 · open −$84

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$240per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 129d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$169 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage

Net worth$360

Realized−$303

Unrealized−$84

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage129d

Avg bet$240

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners	Under	52¢	42¢	$445	$360	−$84 (-19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Harry Kane: 3+ shots	Jun 17	$12	−$12	-98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$399	−$395	-99%
Did Avenir Tech LTD blow up?	Feb 09	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Under	52¢	$78	55m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Under	52¢	$145	55m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Under	52¢	$11	55m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Under	53¢	$214	1h
Harry Kane: 3+ shots	BUY No	23¢	$12	16h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY No	56¢	$55	17h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY No	56¢	$344	17h
Did Avenir Tech LTD blow up?	BUY No	70¢	$100	129d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.12 · official $360.12 (match) · 8 history records