Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
94 0x94ef…99a6 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$990 (-7%) realized −$992 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate70%23W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$434per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$12
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$298
economics 24% −$282
crypto 11% −$678
finance 9% +$17
culture 8% +$23
world 7% +$43
sports 6% −$481
politics 6% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -38.6% -44.5% 40% 20% -61.6%
≤90d 16 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 44% -11.5%
all 33 -12.1% -20.5% 70% 21% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 21% -15.5%
10% -28.1% 18% -23.6%
15% -35.1% 18% -31.0%
20% -41.4% 15% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$985) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$200 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$992
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses23 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage232d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $74 $74 −$1 (-1%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 69¢ 88¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $69 +$67 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 26 $105 −$103 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $12 +$1 +10%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $62 +$42 +67%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $117 +$55 +47%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 30 $125 −$123 -99%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 26 $108 +$109 +101%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 24 $116 +$149 +129%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 19 $108 +$78 +72%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 02 $109 −$107 -98%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Apr 02 $13 +$2 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 02 $1,079 +$51 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1,103 +$11 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 11 $1,060 +$43 +4%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 06 $1,017 +$47 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8? Feb 04 $775 −$775 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $409 −$409 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 15 $1,162 +$23 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $1,139 +$23 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $1,048 +$91 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 04 $950 +$97 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 20 $927 +$23 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $849 +$56 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $209 −$209 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 01 $1,077 +$2 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $30 +$1 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $39 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $985 +$22 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $75 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 50¢ $69 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $19 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $20 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $10 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $6 11d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $105 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY No 46¢ $9 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY No 46¢ $104 27d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 59¢ $62 36d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 57¢ $60 37d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 68¢ $117 41d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 45¢ $45 48d
Oilers vs. Ducks BUY Oilers 55¢ $125 48d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Penguins 49¢ $108 54d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 43¢ $116 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? BUY Yes 57¢ $108 68d
Suns vs. Hornets BUY Suns 35¢ $109 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $1,079 90d
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores BUY Vanderbilt Commodores 85¢ $13 91d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 91d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 69¢ $10 91d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $1,103 99d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 96¢ $1,060 104d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $630 125d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $196 125d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $191 125d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8? BUY No 96¢ $775 134d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $409 151d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY No 98¢ $1,162 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.18 · official $86.18 (match) · 68 history records