Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94eb…f9fe tech 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,503 (-11%) realized −$7,063 · open +$1,560
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,443per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$481
7 days−$497
14 days+$305
30 days−$3,932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 71% −$1,892
tech 24% −$1,808
crypto 5% +$7
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.9% -36.6% 50% 50% -30.2%
≤30d 13 -27.2% -34.2% 31% 23% -34.5%
≤90d 33 -28.7% -35.5% 24% 18% -20.2%
all 33 -28.7% -35.5% 24% 18% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.5% 18% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.6% 18% -27.8%
15% -47.3% 18% -34.8%
20% -52.4% 15% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,197) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -51% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
35.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$801 vs −$467 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$3,201
Realized−$7,063
Unrealized+$1,560
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage61d
Avg bet$1,443
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Down 47¢ 92¢ $1,642 $3,201 +$1,560 (+95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,197 +$481 +40%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $998 −$978 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2,086 +$1,209 +58%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $304 −$291 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $319 −$123 -38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,424 +$7 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $140 +$21 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1,101 −$693 -63%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,791 −$379 -21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $1,401 −$580 -41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $149 −$39 -26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $1,546 −$497 -32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $2,508 −$2,070 -82%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 on May 11? May 11 $1,177 +$3,148 +268%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 11? May 11 $135 −$44 -33%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $400 on May 8? May 08 $973 +$834 +86%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $1,481 −$1,324 -89%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 8? May 08 $323 −$314 -97%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 on May 8? May 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $405 on May 8? May 08 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 6? May 06 $187 −$184 -98%
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC: O/U 1.5 May 05 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $385 on May 4? May 04 $291 −$284 -97%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $937 +$222 +24%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 on May 4? May 04 $108 −$105 -98%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $375 on May 4? May 04 $0 $0 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $4,881 −$2,870 -59%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on April 24? Apr 29 $551 −$432 -78%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on April 22? Apr 29 $29 −$20 -66%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 24? Apr 29 $610 −$303 -50%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 on April 24? Apr 24 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 22? Apr 22 $27 −$26 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $19,188 +$488 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 9¢ $9 5m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 8¢ $1 7m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 10¢ $1 8m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 13¢ $15 11m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 13¢ $15 11m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 13¢ $15 11m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 13¢ $15 11m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 86¢ $36 13m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 85¢ $8 14m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 57¢ $63 23m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 28¢ $32 39m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 76¢ $23 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 73¢ $81 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 68¢ $76 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 60¢ $18 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $57 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 50¢ $56 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 48¢ $54 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 48¢ $54 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 47¢ $53 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 47¢ $53 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 42¢ $42 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 49¢ $37 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 46¢ $52 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 46¢ $52 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,201.37 · official $3,201.37 (match) · 1269 history records