Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94e9…42ee crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized +$4 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$14
other 6% −$7
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 35% -10.6%
≤30d 34 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 35% -10.6%
≤90d 34 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 35% -10.6%
all 34 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 35% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 35% -10.6%
10% -39.2% 29% -19.2%
15% -45.1% 24% -27.0%
20% -50.5% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 89¢ 38¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-57%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $72 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $87 +$39 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$16 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$14 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$44 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $58 −$29 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $56 −$15 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$36 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $77 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$20 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$45 +167%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $40 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $19 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $16 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $40 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $39 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.29 · official $13.32 · 133 history records