Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94e7…5ea4 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$96 (-10%) realized −$97 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$102
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$110
other 11% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -12.6% -20.9% 56% 56% -22.8%
≤30d 47 -10.2% -18.8% 60% 55% -21.7%
≤90d 47 -10.2% -18.8% 60% 55% -21.7%
all 47 -10.2% -18.8% 60% 55% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 55% -21.7%
10% -26.5% 47% -29.2%
15% -33.6% 28% -36.1%
20% -40.1% 9% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage10d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 86¢ $185 $186 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $33 −$32 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $63 −$55 -87%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $47 −$23 -48%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 +$2 +36%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $128 +$51 +40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$2 -34%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$7 -68%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 −$14 -44%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $104 +$33 +31%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $80 +$10 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$3 -67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $186 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $33 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $8 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $25 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $47 33h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $56 33h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $71 33h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $13 38h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 38h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $128 38h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 39h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 7¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 22¢ $17 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $99 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $4 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.09 · official $186.09 (match) · 89 history records