Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94e4…2943 sports 27 markets active 20h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15,596 (-18%) realized −$15,590 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,187per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$1,385
14 days−$1,385
30 days−$1,385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$31,998
sports 39% +$7,010
politics 17% +$9,345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +20.6% +9.1% 75% 75% -27.5%
≤30d 8 +20.6% +9.1% 75% 75% -27.5%
≤90d 10 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 60% -37.3%
all 24 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 62% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 62% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 58% -33.1%
15% -29.6% 29% -39.6%
20% -36.5% 21% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$6,996) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,266 vs −$4,487 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$15,590
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage591d
Avg bet$3,187
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 60¢ 58¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,518 −$2,500 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,396 +$804 +34%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $113 +$97 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$69 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) May 01 $304 −$300 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $803 −$795 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $14,994 −$14,994 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $6,996 +$3,156 +45%
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Feb 01 $100 +$30 +30%
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics Jan 27 $1,000 +$100 +10%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jan 27 $100 +$27 +26%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Jan 27 $500 +$130 +26%
Lakers vs. Bulls Jan 27 $1,300 +$402 +31%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $3,767 +$1,935 +51%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $10,964 +$2,803 +26%
Warriors vs. Cavaliers Dec 07 $820 −$820 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $14,906 +$9,345 +63%
Thunder vs. Warriors Dec 07 $5,999 +$717 +12%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 07 $8,990 −$8,990 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? Dec 15 $6,998 −$6,998 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $507 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 60¢ $304 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,014 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,396 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $113 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,252 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $336 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $606 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 2d
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) BUY Nuggets 57¢ $304 49d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 65¢ $298 49d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 69¢ $505 49d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,749 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,428 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 95¢ $5,000 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,793 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,000 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,000 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,000 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,000 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 138d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic SELL Alcaraz 100¢ $10,153 138d
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 100¢ $130 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.20 · official $294.20 (match) · 83 history records