Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94e4…81b1 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$174 (+12%) realized +$174 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$55
sports 31% +$79
other 27% −$22
politics 7% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.8% +4.7% 88% 50% +2.3%
≤30d 8 +15.8% +4.7% 88% 50% +2.3%
≤90d 8 +15.8% +4.7% 88% 50% +2.3%
all 25 +4.1% -5.9% 64% 48% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 48% +2.4%
10% -14.9% 44% -7.4%
15% -23.1% 32% -16.3%
20% -30.6% 16% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$31 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage603d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $121 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $176 +$50 +28%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $80 −$16 -20%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $114 +$145 +127%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? Oct 27 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? Oct 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? Oct 26 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on June 28 at 5PM ET? Jun 29 $75 +$28 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 28 at 5PM Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 27? Jun 27 $163 +$45 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 27? Jun 27 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $102 +$86 +85%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 03 $1 +$3 +300%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 3h
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 202d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 39¢ $112 224d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 39¢ $64 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 34¢ $50 224d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 224d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $50 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 36¢ $50 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $259 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 44¢ $114 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 36¢ $114 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $76 224d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 60¢ $100 233d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 238d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 238d
Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 238d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 238d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 238d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 28 at 5PM BUY Yes 25¢ $25 358d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records