Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94e3…49b7 sports 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$649 (-5%) realized −$649 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%204W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$214
7 days−$237
14 days−$949
30 days−$1,052
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$373
sports 32% −$367
world 2% +$26
crypto 1% −$16
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -10.8% -19.3% 53% 47% -21.8%
≤30d 158 -16.7% -24.7% 51% 45% -27.4%
≤90d 331 -6.9% -15.8% 62% 53% -15.0%
all 331 -6.9% -15.8% 62% 53% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 53% -15.0%
10% -23.8% 30% -23.1%
15% -31.2% 16% -30.6%
20% -37.9% 6% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$649
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses204 / 127
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)331 / 334
History coverage54d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 72¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-6%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-18? Yes 67¢ 34¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $69 +$31 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $104 +$59 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$11 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $111 −$110 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $91 +$126 +139%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$50 -63%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$13 -18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $77 −$13 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $80 +$35 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$74 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 −$13 -44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $38 +$19 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $39 −$39 -99%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 −$39 -99%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 +$19 +48%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 +$22 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$12 -40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $33 +$17 +50%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 +$10 +23%
CSD Colo-Colo to score first vs. CD Cobresal? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +41%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $16 +$6 +38%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $33 +$13 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $35 +$12 +36%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $35 +$9 +26%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 +$12 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $37 +$7 +18%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $34 +$9 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $63 +$13 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $35 +$9 +26%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $66 +$21 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $37 +$8 +23%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $29 +$16 +56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $32 +$14 +43%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $23 +$17 +72%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $33 +$10 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $29 +$15 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $24 +$11 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $65 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $163 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $4 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $4 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $6 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $4 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $32 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $36 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $38 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $46 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 1¢ $3 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 56¢ $51 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $101 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 47¢ $1 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 10h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 66¢ $101 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 66¢ $1 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.30 · official $208.03 · 828 history records