Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94e2…bc3f crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$59 (+8%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$93
other 37% −$70
crypto 14% −$13
world 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 45% 40% +2.2%
≤30d 51 -8.1% -16.8% 27% 25% -8.7%
≤90d 54 -5.0% -14.0% 28% 26% -8.5%
all 54 -5.0% -14.0% 28% 26% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 26% -8.5%
10% -22.3% 22% -17.3%
15% -29.8% 19% -25.3%
20% -36.7% 17% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 39
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage32d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 29 $41 −$3 -6%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $103 −$9 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $41 +$13 +33%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $31 +$32 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 +$34 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? Jun 28 $10 $0 -3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $42 +$80 +189%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 -17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 25 $2 $0 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 $0 +19%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 $0 -14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +15%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$5 +124%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$53 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $34 +$15 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$3 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $14 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$3 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $13 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $7 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $72 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $94 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $103 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 22h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 46¢ $38 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? SELL No 94¢ $10 28h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $41 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 95¢ $10 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 38h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 41h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 42h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records