Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94e0…7d88 crypto 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$247 (-11%) realized −$244 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%104W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$108
14 days−$158
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$327
crypto 37% −$26
sports 16% +$90
world 1% +$1
weather 1% −$10
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -54.6% -59.0% 0% 0% -66.1%
≤30d 13 -39.9% -45.6% 15% 15% -24.5%
≤90d 87 -24.6% -31.8% 37% 31% -28.7%
all 215 -12.8% -21.1% 48% 43% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 43% -23.3%
10% -28.7% 38% -30.6%
15% -35.6% 30% -37.3%
20% -41.9% 22% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$244
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses104 / 111
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)215 / 234
History coverage137d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $134 $113 −$21 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $69 $72 +$3 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $49 $62 +$13 (+27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $37 $42 +$5 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $19 $15 −$3 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $35 −$7 -19%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $66 −$35 -53%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $73 −$67 -92%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$10 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$4 -32%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$5 -58%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 −$5 -12%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$9 -69%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $96 +$92 +95%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$3 +118%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $9 +$8 +91%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $4 +$16 +413%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $55 +$15 +27%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $2 $0 +16%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $4 +$6 +178%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $6 −$2 -25%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $5 +$6 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $29 −$8 -28%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $15 +$10 +62%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24? Apr 24 $16 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 19? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $19 +$17 +89%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 18? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $31 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: O/U BUY $5 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Sco BUY $5 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY $10 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY $2 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $34 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $33 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 9d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY $5 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND Argen BUY $2 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 11d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 11d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 11d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND E BUY $7 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY $2 12d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $2 12d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 16¢ $25 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Bra BUY $5 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.32 · official $315.32 (match) · 693 history records